MBC to debate housing market volatility and Jeonse shortages tonight

MBC's "100-Minute Debate" airs at 11:20 PM on the 10th to discuss whether Seoul's housing market is facing a crash, as Seocho-gu has seen prices trend downward for 13 consecutive weeks.

MBC's "100-Minute Debate" will air tonight (the 10th) at 11:20 PM with the theme "'Foggy' Housing Prices?.. Is there an answer to the Jeonse shortage?"

Signs of a downturn are appearing in Seoul's Gangnam area, where apartment listings are increasing and prices are falling. According to the Korea Real Estate Board, among the three districts in Gangnam (Gangnam, Seocho-gu, and Songpa-gu), Seocho-gu has seen a downward trend for 13 consecutive weeks, while Songpa-gu has seen one for 9 consecutive weeks. In some complexes concentrated with ultra-high-priced housing, urgent sales have occurred at prices approximately 2 billion won lower than previous transactions.

During a Cabinet meeting at the Blue House on the 3rd, President Lee Jae Myung emphasized that "in major areas of Seoul, apartment listings are increasing rapidly while transaction volumes are decreasing rapidly." He also stated, "Prices are falling at an astonishing rate." This appears to refer to the recent situation in the Gangnam area, where urgent sales driven by holding taxes, reconstruction contributions, and loan regulations are leading the downward trend.

However, questions remain as to whether it is time to "prepare for a major crash in housing prices," as the President mentioned (on X in late August), or whether the rise in non-Gangnam and metropolitan area housing prices during Gangnam's lull can be viewed solely as "price smoothing" (during a press conference on September 18). Looking at all of Seoul, apartment prices have been rising for 91 consecutive weeks, and the so-called "semiconductor belt" in southern Gyeonggi Province has outpaced Seoul's growth rate for 8 consecutive weeks. Non-homeowning actual demanders, pushed by an extreme shortage of Jeonse and monthly rent, are engaging in "survival buying," driving the upward trend in outlying areas.

Following the October 15 real estate measures last year, the government designated all of Seoul and parts of Gyeonggi Province as land transaction permit zones and strengthened regulations such as speculative overheated zones and adjustment target areas. Financial regulations, including limits on mortgage loan amounts and reductions in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, have also been added. However, urgent sales listings are limited to the Gangnam area of Seoul, and it is not easy to find signs of prices falling at an "astonishing" rate.

The MBC "100-Minute Debate" airing tonight (the 10th) at 11:20 PM will feature Kwon Dae-jung, chair professor of the Department of Economic Real Estate at Hansung University; Han Moon-do, adjunct professor of the Department of Investment Real Estate Analysis at Myongji University; Kim In-man, director of the Real Estate Economic Research Institute; and Chae Sang-wook, CEO of History Investment Advisory.

Read the original (Korean)